Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 12:46:34 AWUS01 KWNH 301246 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-301500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0201 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 612 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 301011Z - 301500Z SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous coverage of flash flooding is expected from portions of northwestern TX into central and northeastern OK through 15Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally higher) are likely to impact portions of the region which have recently received heavy rainfall, potentially leading to significant/considerable impacts. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 10Z showed a forward propagating line segment which extended from southwestern OK into northwestern TX, located along and north of a quasi-stationary front which draped southwestward from southern OK into the western Permian Basin of TX. Peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with the advancing line has generally been 1-2 inches. Over southern OK, a band of training resulted in 2 to 5 inches of rain from northern Wilbarger County, TX to Stephens County, OK, out ahead of the advancing line segment. In addition, immediately in the wake of the forward propagating line segment was an additional/small cluster between MAF and LBB, slowly advancing eastward. While some minor weakening of low level winds is expected over the next few hours with the diurnal cycle, 25-45 kt of flow at 850 mb is likely to maintain robust clusters of thunderstorms from northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK over the next 3-5 hours. While line segments are expected to generally propagate toward the east, there will be instances of training within the line segments where orientation matches the SW to NE oriented deeper layer steering flow. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be likely (locally higher) with an additional 2-4 inches through 15Z for portions of the region. Due to areas of ongoing flash flooding from recent heavy rainfall, scattered to numerous occurrences of flash flooding are expected and locally significant/considerable flooding could affect locations on either side of the Red River which have picked up 4+ inches of rain over the past 12 hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8MAzfF1wXQgr7WueA7_e4Z9aRC6qVPzNVzFJ6tklIk3XhCWBTaZbJKICFxSLG7MUWxt9= gkxQC-7DvxNU89dmrfZxvmA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36369678 35909572 35239553 34019604 32449740=20 31839848 31689945 31680041 31910100 32160138=20 32310186 32550216 32960214 33430166 33780050=20 34809961 35819813=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .