Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0616
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 09:25:15

ACUS11 KWNS 300925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300924=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-301130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Areas affected...northwest Texas into the Red River Valley and
across southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...196...

Valid 300924Z - 301130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195, 196
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over parts of northwest into
northern Texas, including the Red River Valley and into far southern
Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...The 850 theta-e advection regime persists early this
morning across TX and OK, fueling episodic MCSs. The primary
convective system currently extends from far southwest OK southward
into northwest TX, with strong reflectivity and respectable echo
tops. Severe gusts are likely occurring with this line, as seen in
recent Knox City observation with 69 mph reported. This line of
storms is straddling the east-west stationary front, and extra lift
near this boundary may support strengthening as it moves eastward
this morning.

Isolated storms well north of the boundary into southern OK have
produced gusts in excess of 50 kt as well, despite the more isolated
nature.

...Jewell.. 04/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!44H1hvbhfQ_VHHotnhbZ9fMMisrA7wX-bR49jBgBQiDObLI5bHt1QasmsEIYtW4tKdcDGroFM=
irYj1Xo1Q8EJVsMv4s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32190032 32889989 33569959 34019951 34579945 34859940
            35279587 35179549 34669528 33969552 33509635 32639841
            32190032=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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