Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 06:01:15 ACUS02 KWNS 300601 SWODY2 SPC AC 300559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ....Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ....Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ....Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ...Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .