Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 30 2025 01:29:26 AWUS01 KWNH 300128 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300727- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0198 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 927 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...west Texas into much of Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 300127Z - 300727Z Summary...Flash flood threat continues across the discussion area through 07Z and beyond. Significant impacts are expected especially across western north Texas and vicinity. Discussion...Over the past 1-2 hours, a general uptick in convection has been noted across much of Oklahoma and western north Texas in tandem with 1) an increase of southerly low-level flow across much of the southern Plains and 2) the complicated evolution of a mature supercellular cluster currently just near Wichita Falls. Most of the convection has been slightly elevated atop a cool/stable layer, but the aforementioned supercellular cluster appeared to root near a remnant outflow from earlier convection, with its complex evolution resulting in a few areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals extending from just southeast of Lubbock to near Seymour over the past 3-4 hours. Convection continues to grow upscale into a mix of lines and cells while also moving through sensitive/wet ground conditions from prior extreme rainfall across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.=20 Occasional instances of flash flooding are expected with this activity (extending into central/south-central Oklahoma) over the next 2-4 hours. Although a very brief break in precip coverage is apparent across west Texas currently, 1) 40-45 knot 850mb flow across southwest Texas, 2) nearly stationary surface boundaries, and 3) apparent ascent over the TransPecos will result in another round of renewed convection across west Texas that will migrate east-northeastward across sensitive areas that have received abundant rainfall over the past week (western North Texas into southern/central Oklahoma). Potential exists for a significant, widespread flash flood event to unfold across these areas over the next 6 hours and beyond.=20 Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_EIqktVdM0CRvzyjj4rYoFAmAjCXJjqyLTxoXsMbYyfBf9JdT9Sq0TjJYb2qgG465eB2= 7rGGx0vcbf6vCruvIcgV3_8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36559630 36539492 35869448 34909480 34029556=20 33249716 32539920 31130148 31390243 33050238=20 34280149 34979995 36019812=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .