Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0607
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 29 2025 20:36:47

ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292035=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-292230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292035Z - 292230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms that are currently elevated may produce marginally
severe hail. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms in central Oklahoma have remained elevated and
sub-severe so far. The observed 18Z Norman sounding showed modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates, but relatively weak buoyancy due to
cloud cover/precipitation. This activity will generally move to the
east/northeast behind an outflow boundary. Recent surface
observations have shown some airmass modification/recovery in
east-central Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed back into the
low 70s. There is at least low potential that storms nearest to the
outflow boundary could become near to surface based. A locally
greater severe threat would be possible in that scenario. Overall,
however, storms will primarily be capable of marginally severe hail
and perhaps isolated damaging gusts.

...Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_CkLoX69OZv9F-yi_0QhcF1DIgAIT4uF_6DmJVT8W-FmoWTK-97XQuPO-1ZbFhuy93v0txtYf=
md3lpsSEiif5vxOlEM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34979457 34769485 34579564 34649648 34839687 35269723
            36169746 36339747 36479716 36539624 36409425 35859399
            35349438 34979457=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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