Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0603
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 29 2025 17:53:46

ACUS11 KWNS 291752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291752=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-291915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Areas affected...southern IL/IN into portions of western/northern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 291752Z - 291915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging gusts and
isolated hail are expected across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley
through the afternoon. A new watch will likely be needed by 19z.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection across southeast MO will
continue to shift east/northeast through the afternoon. While this
activity is in a relative minimum with regards to intensity compared
to earlier today, the downstream airmass across portions of the
Lower Ohio Valley continues to destabilize amid mid/upper 60s F
dewpoints and temperatures in the 80s F. Some re-intensification of
the storm cluster is possible as it encounters this airmass.
Additional thunderstorm development is also possible near the Ohio
River in southern IN. A cluster of cumulus has been deepening across
this area, where outflow from earlier convection may be providing
focus for new development.

Steepened low-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and effective
shear increasing to greater than 35 kt should favor organized
cells/clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. A new
watch downstream from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187 will likely be
needed in the next hour or so.

...Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8wSTHG9Hj2ZpImMOVY21TMmA08X2WZBDsT6lRJ6bJWsVWHr_DLZkqP-SZ3UTy981HDa73ifh4=
QSW5yXrmCo0W1bYvGs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37588623 37098837 37028880 37128923 37498953 37888971
            38328933 38808804 39178648 39228568 39008534 38618515
            38168515 37848550 37588623=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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