Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0593
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 29 2025 00:57:06

ACUS11 KWNS 290056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290055=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...North Kansas...northwest Missouri...southwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

Valid 290055Z - 290230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will continue this evening,
especially across the southern half of ww183.

DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells have developed and oriented
themselves along a corridor from near SLN-STJ. This activity has
matured within a strongly sheared environment (0-6km), but only
modest 0-3km SRH. 00z sounding from TOP suggests weak capping
persists just above 850mb, but very steep lapse rates exist and
large hail will continue to be generated within the more robust
updrafts. Some increase in 850mb flow is expected over the next few
hours, but the primary LLJ should focus across northern IL into the
eastern U.P. of MI. This activity should spread northeast into
northwest MO over the next several hours, just ahead of the surging
cold front. While some additional convection may be generated along
the synoptic boundary, the primary concern should be with the
ongoing supercells.

...Darrow.. 04/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-aPnPQ_74TXZmu4_kwUAWiHf1gsL--Acj_s-CmHPoB2thDVyKiFuTfNM1r1ybL9SfVRwencfk=
XMGZtKE6MtrD4g3G1k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38879746 39759591 40859483 39969394 38639668 38879746=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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