Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0592
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 29 2025 00:15:19

ACUS11 KWNS 290014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290013=20
TXZ000-290145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

Valid 290013Z - 290145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk of very large
hail, with an increasing tornado risk into this evening (00-02Z).

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercell clusters are tracking
northeastward across northwest Texas this evening. These storms are
evolving east of a dryline bulge, where temperatures have warmed
into the 80s amid upper 60s to around 70 dewpoints -- beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per VWP
data), characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph, should
continue to favor a risk of very large hail. However, as the
low-level jet increases over the next couple hours, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs should expand, favoring an increasing tornado
risk -- especially as storms track northeastward toward the Red
River through 02Z. Around of 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH will
conditionally support a strong tornado with any established
right-moving supercells that evolve.

...Weinman.. 04/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ZJXuH4tdVtSb85SmSFwZwdciM9xZJSk0-NVVFc0ETfY_ubxHv7w7XlRttv0aZ7MB8SNS4f_L=
k4JoB8dyZs44kHpdNY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32470016 32680034 33790018 34189991 34299959 34229923
            34049892 33689885 33009895 32579931 32429964 32470016=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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