Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 28 2025 19:24:39 ACUS03 KWNS 281924 SWODY3 SPC AC 281923 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ....Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ....Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ....Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ...Grams.. 04/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .