Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 28 2025 16:25:21 ACUS01 KWNS 281625 SWODY1 SPC AC 281623 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI... ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ....Upper MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley. Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will result in scattered intense thunderstorms. Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather. ....Northern MO... Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado probabilities that far south. ....OK/TX... Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region. ...Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .