Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 28 2025 05:59:04

ACUS11 KWNS 280558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280558=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-280730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota...Northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 280558Z - 280730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to move east-northeastward
across southeastern South Dakota and far northern Nebraska over the
next few hours. Large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are
expected. Weather watch issuance will be needed to the east of the
ongoing watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a severe line
segment from far northern Nebraska into far southern South Dakota.
This line will move east-northeastward along a gradient of moderate
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/g range.
In addition to the instability, warm advection and large-scale
ascent associated with a shortwave trough will support the line over
the next few hours. The latest VWP in northern Nebraska has 0-6 km
shear of 40 to 45 knots, and a gradually veering wind with height in
the low to mid-levels, suggesting that a severe threat will
continue. Large hail and severe gusts will be likely within the
stronger components of the line. Strong low-level shear will also
support a tornado threat with embedded rotating cells within the
line.

...Broyles/Mosier.. 04/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4LNbIHEqXQ08XDvMiUglM7NRuW0QtXsXAnqUotKfZ3U9U_-KAnbyHCYL38f6HwlVMABSYx585=
FH3j2SaXQ5-DkZVqxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42990067 42580055 42219999 42289906 42539767 42869694
            43279665 43899664 44299693 44569742 44629800 44289947
            43980035 43480067 42990067=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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