Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0578
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 27 2025 21:55:00

ACUS11 KWNS 272154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272154=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272154Z - 272330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Risk of isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts
will persist for another couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar data from GWX shows a recent uptick in
thunderstorm intensity along/ahead of a weak boundary draped across
the Mid-South, including a couple discrete supercellular structures.
These storms are evolving in a warm/moist boundary layer with around
2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail
and locally damaging gusts will remain possible with this activity,
before nocturnal cooling stabilizes the boundary layer into the
evening. Given the localized nature of the threat, a watch is not
expected.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 04/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!75japZYxTLucrWYGnjUJb8kARmWlWQxbLNfyipmUTwSYJwENqVNT8eEU2KY6R1YJtxyWjqcRq=
Tx2-pNix_ClPY6IyoE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34009118 34349041 34588948 34528921 34208880 33618859
            33348886 33118947 33039061 33299115 33529133 33789135
            34009118=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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