Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0576
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 27 2025 20:48:00

ACUS11 KWNS 272047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272047=20
KSZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Areas affected...Western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272047Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Watch issuance in western Kansas is currently unlikely.
Significant severe would be possible if storms develop.
Observational trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Periodic enhancement to the cumulus field in western
Kansas has been noted in day cloud phase satellite imagery,
primarily in the vicinity of Goodland. Low 60s F dewpoints ahead of
the surface trough/modest dryline has allowed around 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE to develop. With the generally weak dryline circulation and
uncertain/subtle mid-level ascent, the development of deep
convection is far from a given. Only the more aggressive of the CAM
models suggests development later this afternoon. However, despite
this uncertainty, the environment will be conditionally favorable
for significant severe if storms can form. Supercells would be
likely given 40-45 kts of effective shear perpendicular to the
dryline. Furthermore, a strong increase in 850 mb winds after 00Z
would support a tornado threat.

Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, but observational
trends (including observed sounding data) will be monitored over the
next few hours.

...Wendt/Smith.. 04/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!74CnlkSX7BSi3kXymWZJqrjnglOK5Aoxx9cisi5z7eMP5D6iTrZ-wDHaI8acrgpAnu-Sbu9Pn=
_yL2F2ZUUWGLzjiWO4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37040184 37250192 37800194 38500200 39840192 39930179
            39910146 39730088 38920051 37260066 37030095 37040184=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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