Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0571
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 26 2025 22:16:58

ACUS11 KWNS 262216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262216=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262216Z - 262345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as a pair of
supercells have developed along the dryline in the vicinity of the
Trans-Pecos mountains. These storms will be capable of 2.00+ inch
hail and 60-70 MPH wind gusts, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms have developed along a dryline
in the vicinity of the Trans-Pecos mountains, with 2500+ J/kg of
MLCAPE to the east, and 45-50 kts of deep layer shear. Given
boundary perpendicular shear vectors, supercell storm mode is likely
to be maintained into the early evening hours. Primarily
straight-line hodographs should favor splitting of supercells
capable of large hail and damaging winds, particularly with left
splits. Some meager low-level curvature of the hodograph from
forecast proximity profiles, along with ML LCL heights around
1100-1300 meters, could support tornado occurrence as well,
especially as the nocturnal low-level jet increases low-level shear
into the evening. However, the primary threat will be for 2.00+ inch
hail and 60-70 MPH winds.

...Halbert/Guyer.. 04/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-jdgw9GiKmkUfzyQGaxEEaEUBJcssReXQRJVH88kifJiXbqfEdb7hNGW9atPk-SdCmurAN3Xh=
eu-u_4IwHIYEGTrDtQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30030231 30250309 30650367 31140408 31720444 32050438
            32310375 32390292 32330247 32160179 31860156 31310137
            30880137 30430145 30210152 30040173 30030231=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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