Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0570
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 26 2025 19:52:31

ACUS11 KWNS 261950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261950=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-262145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern OK...nern TX...swrn AR...nwrn LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261950Z - 262145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development is likely to continue to
intensify through 4-6 PM CDT, including a couple of supercells
posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and
perhaps a brief tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...The early day convective cluster has generally
weakened, with at least a couple of remnant mesoscale circulations
continuing to migrate northeastward and eastward into/across parts
of south central Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.  The Rapid
Refresh indicates that there is a lingering pocket of relatively
cold mid-level air (-12 to -13C around 500 mb), associated with a
low-amplitude short wave perturbation overspreading the Red River
Valley vicinity, within moderate westerly mid/upper flow.  It
appears that this is supporting an increase in thunderstorm
development west-northwest of Durant toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

The more recent convection is focused along a diffuse near surface
baroclinic zone within weak surface troughing, where inflow
emanating from a seasonably moist boundary layer characterized by
CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg seems likely to support further
intensification into late afternoon.  This may include supercell
structures with potential to produce severe hail.  Low-level
hodographs are generally forecast to remain modest, but a brief
tornado might not be out of the question.

...Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ZKuK_ui059qRNix3mXIVbAwFX-A0So6sZvd06wkNP4HjgDRMhkcGleBHHXZsM4dR5Iu9_o4G=
PmDpduzYFMji5bhbjE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35039549 34629405 33879322 32719385 33069486 33929644
            34409655 35039549=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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