Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0568
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 26 2025 18:05:47

ACUS11 KWNS 261805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261805=20
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-262000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...parts of cntrl/ern VA ...cntrl and srn MD...DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261805Z - 262000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to gradually develop
through 3-5 PM EDT, with some accompanied by small hail and a few
strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorm development appears underway to the east of the Blue
Ridge, where low-level lapse rates are steepening most substantively
in response to insolation and mixing, in the wake of mid/high
cloudiness and light rain still overspreading northern Mid Atlantic
coastal areas.  Through 19-21Z, the Rapid Refresh suggests that
continued boundary-layer warming may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE
as high as 1000 J/kg, within pre-frontal surface troughing across
central Virginia, northeastward toward the Delmarva.

Mid/upper-level lapse rates are likely to remain weak, as stronger
cooling aloft lags to the northwest of the region.  But, with some
strengthening of westerly mid-level wind fields (to 30-35 kt around
500 mb), the environment may become conducive to small multi-cell
clusters, accompanied by a few potentially damaging surface gusts
which could approach severe limits.

...Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!63E0WVCBE-aUcoeJxdPu5Zm5IQmKKbKQBBHZK8Fh8tenHx5wQ4RGHtBLIzdGQkI-01XEldq13=
otbMOkJX-UaPFIOwP0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501
            38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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