Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 26 2025 00:40:41 AWUS01 KWNH 260040 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-260600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 839 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and Cap Rock...Adj East-Central NM... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 260040Z - 260600Z SUMMARY...Upscale growth from individual supercells toward clusters and small complexes is expected to increase rainfall efficiency and expand areas of intense rainfall rates/totals through early overnight period. Spots of 3-5" are possible and more incidents of flash flooding will be likely. DISCUSSION...00z Surface analysis denote a surface low WNW of Clovis with slowly retrograding dry line extending southward across SE NM toward ROW/ATS and CNM. A strong and steepening frontal zone extends from the low northeastward toward the Canadian River Valley northeast of AMA to BGD and HHF before sagging southward again across central OK. Low level moisture continues to stream eastward and while sfc Tds have remained in the upper 50s/low 60s, the depth of moisture continues to increase as PWat values have risen a few tenths in the last few hours, though still remain greatest/pooled along and south of the frontal boundary through the upper Red River valley where values are over 1.5". VWP shows LLJ is starting to increase from 850 to 700mb with that moisture return with lower winds increasing into the lower 30 kt range from the southeast but southerly flow at 700 is about 20-25 kts.=20 As such, moisture flux convergence from 850-700mb is starting to maximize along the front and convective activity has perked up in the last hour or so, expanding across toward the surface low in eastern NM. While KDP/ZDR suggests large hail currently remains main threat, there is expanding moderate to heavy rainfall signatures as the overall near storm profile continues to moisten/saturate especially in the lowest levels. This will increase rainfall efficiency from supporting 1-1.5"/hr rates currently toward 2"/hr after night fall occurs.=20 Additionally, RAP forecast along with some suggestion in GOES-E WV loop (and AMVs) suggest a broadening diffluent region toward the jet occurring over the TX Panhandle. This is expected to expand with increasing divergence aloft through 06z as it slowly shifts eastward. This will further enhance confluent low level moisture flux toward other developing clusters into a few smaller complexes. Slow forward cell motions and storm scale interactions suggest cell mergers and increased duration at given locations.=20 As such, there remains a solid signal of spots of 3-5" totals and given recent rains and FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 1.5-3"/3hrs it is considered likely that localized flash flooding concerns will continue into early overnight period. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5N-0sd9vPVk7VcgHHY2ft_IoFztZyOTqiK5qvnXTzVnrFGLctrqf1E959b2UNU0BUlYQ= zDMEdZ4Ytjcxzmv3pmpe7VA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35930148 35800077 35360033 34710017 33860040=20 33380094 33410180 33760301 34100340 34880381=20 35380318 35800230=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .