Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0561
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 20:46:00

ACUS11 KWNS 252045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252044=20
TXZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

Valid 252044Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized very large hail threat should be confined to
the Trans-Pecos and adjacent Pecos Valley into early evening.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell has been drifting east, west of
Fort Stockton. Additional storm-development appears likely to be
delayed until early evening or later based on recent visible
satellite and HRRR trends. 19Z observed sounding at Midland sampled
weak 0-3 km shear/SRH, limiting low-level hodograph curvature.
Still, adequate speed shear through the buoyancy layer will support
large to very large hail potential with the supercell or two that
anchor near the higher terrain. As low-level southeasterlies
increase in the next few hours, additional storms may develop north
into far southeast NM.

...Grams.. 04/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-a_SJTAskPue_G1zDJuSxHF-g7qwdZLmzb6hGwlFteaB39tSeCyf9Y9fE0jePyZnUWHpM35Pd=
NHB3RVh-ML1TdT4D4g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   31580316 30880275 30640291 30650345 30720392 31170423
            31980430 31860343 31580316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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