Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0559
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 19:22:00

ACUS11 KWNS 251920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251919=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-252115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...Central/eastern Kentucky into southern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251919Z - 252115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong/potentially damaging wind gust could
occur this afternoon. A watch is not needed.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed within an area of thinner
cirrus canopy in central Kentucky. This is occurring in response to
a weak shortwave in the Midwest. Modest effective shear of around 25
kts could promote a stronger storm or two. Enhanced 850 mb winds
ahead of the surface low/cold front will allow few
stronger/potentially damaging winds to mix to the surface in the
most intense storms. Furthermore, weak but sufficient low-level
hodograph curvature is noted in KLVX/KJKL VAD data. It is possible a
storm or two could exhibit weak low-level rotation. However, tornado
potential is low. Additionally, low/mid-level lapse rates and
mid/upper-level wind shear are all weak. Any severe threat that
develops will be spatially limited and marginal.

...Wendt/Smith.. 04/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8GObmOPRDppSXI5nRd7zOgC-Gi9frBN8ypIoL8eUsc2RGtyO-I9a2N5lo9_NHYH3LyuvhDahC=
7QuCTtDTadcdd38avk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37318683 38308511 38918406 38958314 38668274 37738300
            37228395 36868550 36928660 37028676 37318683=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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