Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 16:46:41 ACUS01 KWNS 251646 SWODY1 SPC AC 251645 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ....SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ....Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ....Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ...Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .