Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 04:56:29 ACUS01 KWNS 250454 SWODY1 SPC AC 250452 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ....Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ....Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ...Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .