Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0555
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 04:54:52

ACUS11 KWNS 250452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250451=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-250615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle into
western/central/northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171...

Valid 250451Z - 250615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Three long-lived supercells are ongoing late tonight
across the northeast TX Panhandle, while convection in OK has
evolved into more of a quasi-linear mode, though a couple of
embedded supercells persist across western OK. While MLCINH is
increasing region-wide, the best relative storm environment remains
across the TX Panhandle into extreme western OK, where MLCAPE in
excess of 1500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to
support supercell potential into the overnight hours. While ongoing
storms will struggle to remain surface-based with time, a
substantial nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet (as noted
on the KAMA VWP) may support some tornado potential with ongoing
supercells in the short term. Otherwise, large hail and localized
severe gusts will remain a threat for as long as vigorous convection
persists overnight.=20

Farther northeast, a small bowing segment has evolved across
north-central OK, which is moving eastward along a weak surface
boundary. The longevity of this bowing segment may be limited by
diminishing downstream instability and increasing MLCINH, but a
severe-wind threat could reach portions of northeast OK with time
overnight.

...Dean.. 04/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!56nnUB6DMZWRmb5_3y2ncvr5KmueasYi9AhU-HV0VQa3qqaEmuQbBTJgHp5-VRISBcD-nTYPK=
ORcrgeH-Z8Lc9yrVkY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35920128 35779951 36199798 36549747 36599668 36279616
            35869621 35429676 35109813 34869967 34860029 34930107
            35000139 35250152 35770162 35920128=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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