Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 03:38:35

ACUS11 KWNS 250335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250335=20
OKZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...Northwest into central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

Valid 250335Z - 250500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat will spread east/southeast late
tonight, though the longevity of the threat is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...After being confined to northwest OK for much of the
evening, an long-lived storm cluster has shown some
east-southeastward acceleration over the last hour. In the short
term, this cluster may continue to pose a threat of hail, localized
severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, as it moves through a
moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. However,
increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent renders
uncertainty regarding the longevity of the severe threat into the
overnight hours.=20

There may be some tendency for the ongoing cluster to propagate
eastward along a weakly confluent surface boundary, with some
potential for redevelopment of convection along/behind the trailing
outflow. There is also some potential for ongoing convection in the
TX Panhandle to eventually spread eastward into
west-central/northwest OK, with at least an isolated severe threat.

...Dean.. 04/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9PiMJxhBupUp8X6llidD4XPD4XgLsnaHp5nxhIaZHS59TDdeym1lKaKPQcoogSXqNtWXMfYWf=
InX5NFm4qhI9vnmPXM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36389957 36849814 36839746 36589707 36059714 35599765
            35489826 35439880 35339944 35319976 35479992 35629996
            35919993 36149995 36389957=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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