Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0553
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 25 2025 01:53:31

ACUS11 KWNS 250151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250151=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...OK/TX Panhandles into the TX South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 167...

Valid 250151Z - 250315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 167 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail and a tornado threat may
continue into late evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells with a history of producing
very large hail is ongoing at 0145 UTC across the northeast TX
Panhandle. While MLCINH is gradually increasing, some rightward
motion has recently been noted with these cells, indicative of some
increase in cell organization. Some tornado threat may yet evolve
with these cells, given the presence of strong instability and
modestly enlarged low-level hodographs per the KAMA VWP. Otherwise,
large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain
possible with the strongest of these cells as they propagate
southeastward.=20

Farther south, a cell with notable deviant rightward motion is
moving southward into Garza County. This cell has a history of
producing tornadoes and is likely producing very large to giant
hail. An imminent collision with a northeastward-moving left-mover
may disrupt this cell, though the cell/outflow interaction may
briefly lead to an uptick in tornado potential. The long-lived cell
over southern Motley County may also continue to pose a threat of
all severe hazards over the next 1-2 hours.=20

Eventually, increasing MLCINH should lead to weakening of ongoing
discrete storms, though some threat may still persist to near or
after the 11 PM CDT expiration time of WW 167.

...Dean.. 04/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7MBJjRB_zKZ5PqP4H_z6dKsBlpiPGX1wNzN9UVYS7aqu9FxlgGhKIMo_6qv74SD7ZtvFKhbY1=
jB9GS2qppOXQp44hUk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33730046 32960074 32670122 32690165 32860194 33070199
            35060154 36800116 36920047 36400014 35600009 34070039
            33730046=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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