Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 24 2025 17:29:31 ACUS02 KWNS 241729 SWODY2 SPC AC 241727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ....Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ....Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ...Goss.. 04/24/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .