Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0543
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 24 2025 19:34:23

ACUS11 KWNS 241933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241933=20
TXZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...parts of cntrl and sern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241933Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to organize, with
signs of increasing potential to produce strong to severe gusts
while propagating southeastward toward the mid/upper Texas coastal
plain through 5-7 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, and southeasterly updraft
inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE
in excess of 2000 J/Kg), have maintained vigorous thunderstorm
development.  Activity has undergone notable intensification and
increasing organization, and it appears that a meso-beta scale
cyclonic circulation is becoming better-defined near the Waco
vicinity, where a couple of 50+ kt surface gusts have recently been
observed.=20=20

Despite continued gradual warming around 700 mb, and some suggestion
that the larger-scale forcing for ascent may weaken, the
boundary-layer ahead of the storms remains potentially supportive of
further intensification of the convective system, southeastward
toward the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into early evening.=20
Deep-layer mean flow and shear remain generally modest, as does the
strength of the surface cold pool (as of 19Z observational data).=20
However, with further strengthening of the mesoscale vortex and
west-northwesterly rear inflow, there remains potential for a
continued increase in risk for strong to severe gusts during the
next few hours.

...Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8yNUmVh-ukOOgP8tRRXBco4IwjBxngFly46mgEo1KJhXkDVru04wDuHgvy8XuFObRZD5Ox0T5=
N4WkQ310HN5YCAahoY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31209864 31229751 31609697 31689612 32209488 30849454
            30079633 30289793 30759889 31209864=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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