Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 24 2025 04:53:24 ACUS01 KWNS 240450 SWODY1 SPC AC 240449 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ....Synopsis... Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels, the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada. At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south. ....Central and southern Plains... MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here, widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS border during the evening. ...Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .