Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0529
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 21:45:32

ACUS11 KWNS 232144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232143=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-232315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into central
Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232143Z - 232315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and gusts may accompany multicells
and left-splitting supercells into the evening hours. A WW issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells, with a history of producing
marginally severe hail/gusts, continues to propagate northward into
a buoyant airmass. Deep-layer tropospheric lapse rates exceed 8 C/km
amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Regional
VADs ahead of the ongoing storms depict relatively straight
hodographs, suggesting that multicells and perhaps splitting
supercells will remain the dominant mode of convection, with severe
wind/hail the main threats. Given weak forcing for ascent, storm
maintenance/rejuvenation will rely on cold pool propagation.
Nonetheless, several more hours of adequate surface heating should
allow for the propagation of stronger cells into at least central
IA. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7z-vsUTgDgYHE5Vl0t6UeQu5qVU7WLgNKCvTkGzoxvwCqY0m3jmB4jAzCiE-eCbgntcXUTJSo=
vj2fvRYvg_Cj0FnGZA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   40809674 41799627 42289554 42719395 42629281 42039261
            41269280 40729353 40419465 40369551 40439626 40809674=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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