Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 18:46:05 AWUS01 KWNH 231845 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240044- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0163 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...northeast KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 231844Z - 240044Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity across northeast KS. Hourly rain totals to 1.75" and local overall totals to 4" are possible over the next several hours, which would challenge modest flash flood guidance values. Discussion...ML CAPE has been increasing while CIN has been increasing across eastern KS, which is leading to a convective uptick across northeast KS in the vicinity of a front.=20 Precipitable water values are near 1", and ML CAPE has risen to just over 2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear remains under 25 kts, at the moment. There have been signs of backbuilding and cell mergers north of Randolph KS as of late, and the convective pattern is slowly growing. The mesoscale guidance suggests two pulses of activity -- one early, which is ongoing near the mesoscale warm front, and one later on toward the end of the MPD period which appears to be caused by convection along the mesoscale cold front which edges eastward. Inflow at 850 hPa is forecast to increase, which should lead to effective bulk shear increasing to 25+ kts and increasing convective organization with time. Assuming some hail contamination, hourly rain totals to 1.75" are ongoing due to backbuilding and cell mergers, and there's no reason to expect that to change much over the next several hours. This leads to the idea that the mesoscale guidance is too low on overall rainfall amounts. Moistening of the atmosphere locally should raise the precipitable water values above 1.25". Overall rain totals should maximize around 3-4", which would challenge the modest flash flood guidance values in the area. Any flash flooding would be isolated to widely scattered. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-zVn48V_Ux1xp2tktEU9p1x7YqeA_W6d5MkCMNybACj-kO4xHxkLdHQVGhX7ncAStcnr= B8gousFspoCTrolmajQHmv4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40109594 39789510 39139510 38579664 38599781=20 39289783 40069758=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .