Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0526
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 16:54:50

ACUS11 KWNS 231654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231654=20
KSZ000-MOZ000-231930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of cntrl and eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231654Z - 231930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by
increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging
surface gusts, mainly toward 2-4 PM CDT and later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Above a modestly moist boundary layer (characterized by
mid/upper 50s F surface dew points), within broad surface troughing
across the central and southern Great Plains, forecast soundings
suggest that a subsidence induced warm/dry layer between 850-700 mb
is still contributing to substantial inhibition across central into
eastern Kansas.  However, thunderstorm activity has recently
initiated in a small cluster north of Hutchinson.=20=20

Even if this activity is rooted close to the surface, and being
forced through the capping layer, CAPE within/above the mixed-phase
layer still appears modest, with weak shear beneath 10-15+ kt
westerly 500 mb flow also likely to limit potential for large hail
growth.  Latest objective analysis, though, does indicate a corridor
of increasing boundary-layer destabilization, roughly along
Interstate 70 near/east of Concordia, in response to continuing
insolation and some further moistening aided by weak low-level
convergence.

As this boundary-layer destabilization progresses (and
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates become rather steep), weakening
mid-level inhibition may allow for intensifying thunderstorm
activity with increasing potential to produce severe hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6-ghl-GitV2l1On3uIl603W8NtvU2Duv8QQxldE0_xz84QvsgYrLkMdiTiOw7W5JzNpxsl7Hv=
Plm3Ty_1Pvd6PmgbS4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39709815 39789622 39619499 38659484 38479620 37969696
            38129791 38999807 39709815=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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