Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 06:59:13

ACUS03 KWNS 230658
SWODY3
SPC AC 230658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma
and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

....Southern Plains...

Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening
upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper
ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating
will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon
where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be
ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to
what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is
forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS
Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late
afternoon/early evening.

Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead
of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across
western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead
of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts,
though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through
700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes
amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated
hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger
updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates
also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is
somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing
mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears
likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for
parts of OK/TX.

...Leitman.. 04/23/2025

$$

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