Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0521
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 01:22:49

ACUS11 KWNS 230120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230120=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 230120Z - 230315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening. Hail is the primary risk.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak, low amplitude
short-wave trough is located over the central Plains. This feature
is translating east and may provide some encouragement for isolated
convective development along/near a frontal zone that currently
extends from south of CNK-north of STJ. 00z sounding from TOP
exhibited very steep lapse rates, but notable capping was evident
near 2km, and surface-based convection may struggle to develop as
nocturnal cooling increases. However, large-scale ascent ahead of
the short wave may cool/moist mid levels such that an elevated
parcel is more likely to freely convect over the next few hours.
This activity could briefly attain severe levels, but
longevity/coverage may not warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

...Darrow/Mosier.. 04/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-EnxIRuEbYH5aCDcYbuqh9ysLH--t0FPb4K_PSSj2I2W2BFFczVAKkrEP_OQ8VjW_pVUAHarK=
ZlArvtZkjka_pQZbW0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39129752 40389460 40389345 39709364 38139657 39129752=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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