Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0518
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 22 2025 21:54:51

ACUS11 KWNS 222154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222154=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222154Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany the
stronger storms. A WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A baroclinic boundary/weak surface front continues to
slowly sag southward, serving as a local source of lift for
deep-moist convection. One multicellular cluster has already
developed along the boundary in central IL and produced an instance
of 1 inch diameter hail. Through the afternoon a couple more storms
could develop. If they do, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear may support an instance of marginally severe
hail/wind. The severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8RgjbPexOp6yx3h51lq0ovOL-NTfJeNi6z99Nm5nDipKTW7vIoYKLow89sfG7gLwPdMNTEDAR=
4lfhnN_dXTXgRn6Ke8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39419221 39799248 40359229 40839119 41089038 41008919
            40568875 40068919 39758991 39599079 39479176 39419221=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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