Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 22 2025 19:24:47

ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

....Southern Kansas southwestward to the Transpecos region of
Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
near a weak front lying roughly west-to-east across Kansas.  As the
storms sag southeastward with time, the combined front/convective
outflow will continue making slow southward progress.

Meanwhile, daytime heating/mixing across the Texas Panhandle/South
Plains/Transpecos will support eastward mixing of a dryline through
the afternoon.  With a moist boundary layer east of the dryline,
heating combined with the steep lapse rates/EML being maintained
across the area by moderate west-southwesterlies aloft will result
in moderate destabilization.  This should support isolated storm
development near the dryline, perhaps most focused where the
southward-sagging outflow/cold front from Kansas intersects the
eastward-mixing dryline (somewhere in the southwestern
Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity).

The lack of stronger flow aloft should continue to limit shear
across the southern Plains region, but veering winds with height
should again support potential for mid-level rotation.  Attendant
risks for large hail and locally gusty/damaging winds warrant
continuation of MRGL/5% severe probability.  Some thought was given
to a small SLGT risk upgrade, near the intersection of the dryline
and the outflow-reinforced front mentioned earlier, as backed
low-level flow may yield a bit more favorable of a wind profile
locally.  However, with some uncertainty evident with respect to if,
and how far, the front can progress southward through the day, have
opted not to upgrade at this time.

...Goss.. 04/22/2025

$$

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