Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0515
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 22 2025 19:16:20

ACUS11 KWNS 221914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221914=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...the South Carolina and North Carolina Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221914Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity may continue to
gradually develop and strengthen through 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by
at least some risk for marginally severe hail and potentially
damaging surface gusts.  This may remain fairly localized and a
severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to
be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm development appears
underway, perhaps supported by subtle mid-level cooling on the
northwestern periphery of deep-layer ridging centered off the south
Atlantic coast.  Based on forecast soundings, destabilization for a
modestly moist and warming boundary layer remains inhibited by weak
high-level lapse rates.  However, CAPE within the mixed-phase layer
might still be sufficient to support small to marginally severe
hail, aided by favorable shear beneath a 40 kt southwesterly jet
streak around 500 mb.=20=20

Lower-level wind fields will remain more modest, but with at least
some further boundary-layer destabilization through peak daytime
heating, scattered thunderstorm activity will probably continue to
intensify.  And downward mixing of momentum may lead to a few
potentially damaging wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening.

...Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!906hPMYJfsSBQLjXENXBdzgZE586RtzzLqF5ZZL-JlZyhwMLEqcD10Q9vZM2OBNgh58jZSW_t=
DegMS4wLb_7kqArXyo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35098137 36287916 36537783 36447688 35667752 34977936
            34078076 34028224 35098137=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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