Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 22 2025 17:34:16 ACUS02 KWNS 221733 SWODY2 SPC AC 221731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ....Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ....Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ...Goss.. 04/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .