Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 22 2025 05:29:27 ACUS01 KWNS 220529 SWODY1 SPC AC 220527 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ....Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ....Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .