Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 21 2025 19:19:11

ACUS03 KWNS 211919
SWODY3
SPC AC 211918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

....Central/Southern High Plains...
Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and
central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee
surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A
stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the
central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should
destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak
perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide
ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a
mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this
GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across
much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado.
However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the
front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the
state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have
significant implications on warm sector destabilization and
northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty
have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the
Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas,
Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the
dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been
added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind
gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening.

...Bentley.. 04/21/2025

$$

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