Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0512
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 21 2025 17:28:50

ACUS11 KWNS 211728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211728=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-212000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...central/southern Mississippi...central/northern
Alabama...south-central Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211728Z - 212000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for gusty winds and hail through the
afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across a cold
front extending through the southeastern states this morning. Ahead
of this feature, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed daytime
heating and modest MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg to develop. Flow
across this region is fairly weak, though some deep layer shear
20-35 knots is observed in surface objective analysis. As storms
move north and eastward this afternoon, potential for a few areas of
gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Severe potential
appears too limited for watch issuance to be needed.

...Thornton/Hart.. 04/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!512M-XrQv-BpYd18ZtNadndo3H-cJPMonEj9cVrtoIC6S7yuZWSrRrLOslt46a07W-RlJ8pmZ=
55IIhaGG32ZBpezM7w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   32359100 34078895 34988766 35488672 35598618 35568570
            35518555 35418525 34988505 32058795 30378982 29949059
            30199162 30559195 30949207 32359100=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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