Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0511
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 21 2025 16:47:40

ACUS11 KWNS 211647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211647=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-211915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...parts of nern OH...nwrn PA...swrn NY State

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211647Z - 211915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strengthening low-topped thunderstorm development appears
probable by 3-5 PM EDT, including isolated to widely scattered
supercells accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and at
least some risk for a tornado.  It is not clear that a severe
weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Within the warm sector of an occluding cyclone
migrating northeastward across the upper peninsula of Michigan,
boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing within at least a narrow
corridor across eastern Ohio into the lower Great Lakes vicinity.=20
Closely trailing an initial band of weak mid-level warm advection
driven convection, which has contributed to saturation of initially
dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles, boundary-layer moisture
characterized by dew points near 60f, is rapidly advecting
northeastward.  This is occurring beneath the leading edge of a
mid-level dry slot, which is allowing for increasing insolation.=20
The NAM and Rapid Refresh suggest that this will contribute to
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, prior to the passage of
the cold front.

This is also occurring beneath a 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb
jet axis, where forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level
hodographs may include modest clockwise curvature of the shear
vector with height by peak destabilization.  As mid/upper forcing
for ascent (downstream of the base of a negatively tilted short wave
advancing toward the region) supports deepening convective
development, there appears a window of opportunity for scattered
low-topped supercell development by 19-21Z.  This may be accompanied
by a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally strong
surface gusts, and at least potential for a tornado or two.

...Kerr/Hart.. 04/21/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-59r-w6R6gH3-leuLxOytOFWcUb6Fs_3Dq0j6IfkUgTq51yftnKNyvm9A1G9TjE199lrHlG1S=
UNYR-ufTkDhMZUBS3w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42887905 42497783 41857867 40827995 40408114 40938153
            41898069 42887905=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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