Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 21 2025 05:30:08

ACUS01 KWNS 210530
SWODY1
SPC AC 210528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the upper Ohio Valley and
across portions of the central Gulf States. Gusty winds and
marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

....Upper Ohio Valley...

Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough is forecast to eject into the upper
Great Lakes region by mid day as 70+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern IN into southern ON. 500mb wind fields will
strengthen across the upper OH Valley in response to this feature as
heights are suppressed ahead of the short wave. Latest model
guidance suggests the associated cold front will surge into western
OH/KY by 18z, subsequently advancing into western PA later in the
evening. Modest boundary-layer heating should contribute to adequate
buoyancy for robust updrafts, and scattered convection should
develop ahead of the front as temperatures warm through the 70s.
Gusty winds may accompany this activity, along with some risk for
marginally severe hail.

....Central Gulf States...

Synoptic front will trail across the TN Valley through the central
Gulf States today serving as the focus for thunderstorms as
convective temperatures are breached along this weakly-forced
boundary. While 0-6km bulk shear should only be modest across this
region, seasonally high PW values and MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg
suggest some risk for gusty winds and hail. Boundary-layer heating
should prove instrumental in convective updraft strength today.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/21/2025

$$

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