Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0504
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 20 2025 19:47:32

ACUS11 KWNS 201947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201946=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-202115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Northwest/north-central Arkansas into southern
Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

Valid 201946Z - 202115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms moving into north-central Arkansas and southern
Missouri will pose a risk of tornadoes--some strong--and damaging
winds. There are signs of discrete storms within the line in
northwest/west-central Arkansas. These storms would bring the
greatest tornado risk.

DISCUSSION...KSRX radar imagery shows a few semi-discrete storms in
far western Arkansas. MRMS CAPPI data also shows these storms
intensifying. Mid-level ascent with southern extent will remain more
limited, but deep-layer shear vectors slightly more perpendicular to
the cold front will also favor discrete storms. VAD data from
KSGF/KLZK/KLSX all have shown an increase in low-level SRH over the
past couple of hours. This trend should continue, particularly in
Missouri. Supercell and QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be
strong, are all possible in this environment. Additionally, the more
linear convective elements will also pose a threat of wind damage.

...Wendt.. 04/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5PyQbLklGtJ4JqfDUwIAfT46zrBPb35KGEMp_szBph7OoyDTS9HMwkFTiQDghRbC0tS8PDq-T=
pQNXh52RHGCWr6IMLM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36229452 36709452 37129414 37419288 37379162 36929141
            35529178 34889289 34619371 34509449 36229452=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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