Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 20 2025 15:25:58 AWUS01 KWNH 201525 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-202115- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0149 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1125 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern OK...Northwest AR...Southwest MO...Southeast KS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 201525Z - 202115Z SUMMARY...Recharging thermodynamic enivorment and strong forcing starting to initiate scattered convective activity capable of intense rain-rates (1-1.5"/hr) across saturated soils conditions possible to result in renewed flash flooding conditions locally. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts about 1.5 standard deviation deep closed low centered across SW OK continuing to lift northeastward with a negative tilt orientation extending across the Red River Valley. The suite along the RADAR mosaic also denotes the southern stream shortwave/MCV from last evening's convective complex remains at the western gradient of the warm conveyor belt in southwest MO lifting north-northeastward. The pair support a stronger 1008/9mb surface low across central OK with a warm front extending eastward across southeast OK while a progressive cold front is undercutting through northeast TX. The Ozarks/Boston Mountains along with worked over surface environment breaks the frontal zone across NE OK toward a weakness in the surface pattern across SW MO associated with the aforementioned shortwave. The interaction with these waves and strong dynamics (DPVA and right entrance ascent pattern) across E OK is strengthening and backing low level warm sector and sharpening the FGEN fields across central to northeast OK into SW OK. VWP suite shows southerly flow strengthening to 40-50kts through 700mb advecting the conditionally unstable airmass across E TX/W AR where breaks in cloud cover are bringing temperatures into teh low 70s with increasing surface Tds into the mid 60s resulting in SBCAPEs over 1000 J/kg. Given the advective environment/strong backing flow and isentropic ascent downstream of the height-falls; moisture convergence/FGEN is strengthening across E OK attm.=20=20 As such, regional RADAR depicts increasing shallow convective coverage across Coal/Hughes/Creek county axis with more widely scattered activity further northeast along the WAA/FGEN axis into SW MO. Total PWats of 1.25, steadily increasing toward 1.5" and vertical development should support rates of 1-1.5"/hr with bulk falling in less than 30 minutes. Forward propagation is likely to initially limit overall totals initially to 1-1.5", but will be falling across compromised soil conditions likely to exceed the lowered FFG values (.75-1.5"/hr), the forward speed/coverage of the rainfall may be limited and only result in re-aggravating flash flooding conditions across the area; however, as the afternoon progresses, increased heating/convective vigor will increase coverage allowing for broader coverage particularly along a SW to NE axis near the triple point as it lifts across NE OK, far SE KS, SW MO where training/repeating will occur where SWly steering flow is more parallel to the FGEN axis. This is also where FFGs are further compromised below .5"/hr likely resulting in broader areas of flash flooding into the mid-afternoon. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7p7E-w_gRtyoJqAWg-X5ohvJU_BPEKgD8jpwiVzfZyv5d3jgrL7OflBf_Oy6XiwAsceK= bYOi78V9u94eoxeSq1VCufk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38819352 38499282 37759260 37279277 36549330=20 35549393 34999446 34649485 34139579 34439655=20 35459673 36269662 37029605 38269479 38689419=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .