Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0499
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 20 2025 07:03:53

ACUS11 KWNS 200702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200701=20
TXZ000-200900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Southwest...Central and North-central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...152...

Valid 200701Z - 200900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151, 152 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will
continue to be possible for a few more hours across parts of
south-central, central and north-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor and mosaic radar imagery show a
linear MCS located across the from the Texas Hill Country extending
north-northeastward into central Texas. Ahead of the line of strong
to severe storms, a narrow axis of moderate instability is analyzed
by the RAP. This line is located along the western edge of a 50 to
60 knot low-level jet. Short-term model forecasts suggest the
low-level jet will strengthen and shift northward, providing lift
favorable for continued storm maintenance within the MCS. RAP
forecast soundings near and ahead of the linear MCS have 0-6 km
shear around 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail.
Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, and bowing
segments. A tornado or two will also be possible with supercells or
any rotating element within the line. Also, forecast soundings along
the southern end of the line have a capping inversion. This
inversion is expected to increase with time. As the storms move
gradually eastward, this cap should help reduce severe potential.

...Broyles.. 04/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!85ZVWArnmt_ZFnhxhPqs28dhR_zQhYL1T8SaVEuEzE_oWv1rvduEjTVFJVQw_CdfiCV4japSi=
igLB51oTIensNMei4o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30369896 31479822 32299782 32779787 33089807 33179836
            33189863 33069898 32769922 32279924 31739957 31010000
            30530031 30230043 30000024 30059947 30369896=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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