Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0496
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 20 2025 03:40:37

ACUS11 KWNS 200339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200339=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-200445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...Northeast/Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 200339Z - 200445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon across portions
of northeast and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Intense low-level warm advection has developed across
eastern OK into northwest AR, per latest VAD profiles from INX/SRX.
0-3km SRH is impressive across this region as the LLJ is
strengthening into this area. Over the last few hours, an elongated
MCS has matured across ww159, and several long-lived supercells,
with tornadoes at times, are embedded along a corridor from Parker
County TX to Hughes County OK. Boundary-layer air mass is gradually
recovering across this region with lower 60s surface dew points
north of I40 into northwest AR. Severe threat is expected to
increase across this area over the next several hours as the
upstream MCS spreads into this region, but isolated supercells are
also likely within the warm-advection zone. New Tornado Watch is
warranted across this area.

...Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6g-5A0XI3n42rxQwtEKQ3R3bfj-EygNSyrzMHZsvFuyeaJgB9-EMm1Q5FxOpWlhl72qSyX31N=
Lza2KaLAL4qm2x3UMI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35459643 36139555 36409433 36009384 34749487 35459643=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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