Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0489
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 20 2025 00:35:23

ACUS11 KWNS 200035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200035=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

Valid 200035Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A
locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete
supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red
River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at
least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress
northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper
60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary.
As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant,
likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued
intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed
sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved
hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential
should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as
this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences
unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also
suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at
least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization
and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado
cannot be ruled out.

...Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4p11xKiFnToxdJAszI90o-zKIqfXrH7Q4o9oeVQsD1cbDE1ksVzVpDm2SL8J1bNAVEwKOGnTY=
Ie1FS9pKaHONjTXErI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654
            33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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