Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0486
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 19 2025 22:22:03

ACUS11 KWNS 192220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192220=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-192345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...southeast Ohio into central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192220Z - 192345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing this evening along a
surface-cold front. Despite strong deep-layer shear, modest
instability should limit the overall severe threat and a watch is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move east
across southern Ohio with a history of producing sporadic tree
damage. Farther northeast, additional thunderstorms are developing
along a surface-cold front pushing southeast through Pennsylvania.=20

The overall environment in which these storms are progressing is
best characterized by mixed-layer CAPE around 500 J/kg and
effective-layer shear between 50-60 knots. Model soundings along and
ahead of these storms suggest maximum mid-level-lapse rates greater
than 8 C/km within the 500-700-mb layer which would suggest a
continued threat for some hail and wind.

Ahead of these thunderstorms, diurnal heating allowed for some
mixing out of low-level moisture which is contributing to a
significant reduction in 100-mb mixed-layer CAPE with eastward
extend. The combination of decreasing instability and the loss of
diurnal heating should promote an overall decreasing intensity trend
and preclude the need for a watch.

...Marsh/Smith.. 04/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6yOyacijvCma2-q0GDYAVTINLkWczirJRwr1Gz-wvwR_KjXnG0Jh1F74Y0LJh2PpJ03ek7Jm8=
7v0bZTtk4F9TQUBuec$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON   38638367 39148329 39858220 40468057 40937874 40737761
            40287740 39797777 39107980 38668184 38568292 38638367=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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