Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 19 2025 21:31:50 AWUS01 KWNH 192131 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-200245- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 530 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...west-central TX into east-central OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 192130Z - 200245Z Summary...Repeating and training of cells over west-central TX will pose at least a localized but increasingly likely flash flood threat over the next several hours. The flash flood threat is expected to expand northeastward into northern TX and east-central OK after 00Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be likely and totals in excess of 4 inches through 03Z will be possible. Discussion...Surface observations and radar imagery from 21Z showed 3 or 4 supercells between MAF and SJT located near a quasi-stationary front with movement toward the northeast. Additional development was occurring northeast of these stronger cells. The cells were located near and northeast of a triple point low located just east of FST within a very unstable but modestly moist environment with 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs near 1 inch (via recent SPC mesoanalysis data). Cell coverage will increase over the next few hours as forcing for ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-level low over western NM and as continued low level moisture advection into/across the Red River helps to boost instability. Individual cells are likely to continue a northeastward motion following the deeper-layer mean flow and frontal orientation but organized supercells are likely to move right of the mean wind. There will likely be elements of short term training as cell alignment matches the steering flow but as cells advance off toward the northeast, additional development is expected near the triple point as low level southerly/southeasterly flow advects unstable airmass back into the region. Beyond 00Z, 850 mb winds are forecast to increase over central/eastern TX above 40 kt, increasing low level moisture northward across the Red River with pockets of CIN eroding across OK (via recent RAP forecasts) likely supporting convective development and expansion through 03Z. Given similarly oriented storm motions and boundary orientation at the surface, training is expected to become increasingly likely. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected to develop with areas of flash flooding becoming likely. Potential for localized totals greater than 4 inches will exist and may overlap with the northern edge of 1-2 inches of rain which fell over the past 24 hours over portions of TX/OK. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QK-IFBxP_faYCThfe5DdxiQNub2Eeq7nuHf7c24BVknH3dtNaZy_P4aFGY5BPb0kLp2= IQ_D9P2ISE8mXfw7ZETkTK0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35669666 35639576 35269554 34579577 33069725=20 32169859 31650003 30690195 30730263 31280247=20 32370115 33459966 34869821=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .