Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0477
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 19 2025 04:47:51

ACUS11 KWNS 190446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190445=20
TXZ000-190615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...the Permian Basin into parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 190445Z - 190615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected
overnight. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in Crockett county
within the past 30 minutes. This is likely the beginning stages of
scattered strong to severe storms through the overnight period. A
modest increase in the low-level jet has been noted on the KSJT VWP
with additional strengthening anticipated into the overnight period.
1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE is present across the region (per SPC
mesoanalysis) which, combined with 70+ knots of effective shear,
would support the potential for supercells capable of large hail.
While storms will likely be elevated initially, there is sufficient
low-level moisture, especially with eastward extent that some
surface-based storm threat and greater severe wind/isolated tornado
threat may exist farther east, especially if storms grow upscale.

...Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!948YS0zNWa7Z4-U3WZSeoRbprL0K5Tyb3kt83m4aPZdfojzwzv7f-8W1OLp4c09mm4N7wcI44=
ugI7jFF2KEA1qWdug4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30790156 31170160 32330044 32579877 32489809 30889895
            30370027 30360135 30790156=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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