Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0476
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 19 2025 04:28:40

ACUS11 KWNS 190426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190426=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into
eastern Oklahoma.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

Valid 190426Z - 190600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe weather threat will continue into the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed late this evening
across south-central and eastern Oklahoma and into north Texas with
hail up to golf ball size. A strengthening low-level jet (sampled by
the KFWS VWP) and continued destabilization via moistening around
1km and cooling temperatures aloft should continue to support a
supercell threat into the overnight hours. Large hail will be the
primary threat, but some tornado threat will continue to exist with
any storms along and south of the cold front where an STP of 1 to 2
is present.=20

Additional severe convection west and north of the ongoing storms
from Stephens to Cleveland county remains uncertain. The core of the
low-level jet appears to be focused mostly east of that axis with
minimal evidence on the KFDR VWP and only modest strengthening at
1km from KDYX. Therefore, convection will likely be preferred from
south-central Oklahoma and eastward, but sufficient elevated
instability remains across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
that additional development is possible.

...Bentley.. 04/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7SI7DT_zMLYePTOyYKsVfEwkEigUEoggTmFK2sMlIP0OEohj0c_l11y7MLL39hja0Dvca0Q3O=
jTZDCgAh5mnvf0Y6c0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33819820 34389901 34949907 35229859 36249660 36269650
            36519556 36359486 36069466 35459470 34589568 33829665
            33749728 33689783 33819820=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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